冰与火之歌

Recession Talk Grows Louder in US as Economic Dowturn Expected 'in Months'_我的网站

A |     《日报》全媒体记者 张宝程          　　人面梨花相辉映。    Growing concerns over rampant inflation and an aggressive use of classic monetary tools by the US central bank have fanned fears of recession across Wall Street and in Washington, reported Politico.,President Joe Biden may have insisted that “there’s nothing inevitable” about a US recession, but repeating that mantra is unlikely to make it a reality, claim analysts. Accordingly, Wall Street is increasingly building the gloomy possibility of recession into its forecasts.,A “brief yet shallow” recession could start in the last three months of the year, according to Dana Peterson, the chief economist at The Conference Board, speaking at a “Women Rule” event cited by Politico.,Michael Feroli, the chief US economist at JPMorgan Chase, believes that a downturn could start as soon as this quarter, as he pointed to consumer beginning to slow.,“Things are looking like we’re losing altitude pretty quickly,” he was cited as saying.,Fed's Anti-Inflation Tactic Unhelpful, Should Focus on Supply Chains, Economist Says2 July, 18:53 GMT,A recession is typically defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. This is made official when confirmed by the National Bureau of Economic Research. The bureau defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months.”,US Markets Lost up to 30% This Year Amid Soaring Inflation, Fuel Prices, Sanctions Backlash1 July, 16:59 GMT,The US government confirmed last week that the economy shrank in the first three months of the year. The US Commerce Department has revised its reading on first-quarter GDP down from an initial print for a 1.5% drop, showing a 1.6% contraction. The Atlanta Fed’s economic growth tracker pointed to the increased chances of a second-quarter contraction.,Fed Chair: Recession 'a Possibility',Chairman of the Federal Reserve, the central bank of the United States, Jerome Powell, weighed in on the current economic volatility on June 29. Speaking at a European Central Bank forum held in Portugal, he said that one way to fight inflation was to slow growth while keeping it positive.,"Is there a risk that would go too far? Certainly, there's a risk. I wouldn't agree that it's the biggest risk to the economy. The bigger mistake to make ... would be to fail to restore price stability," Powell said,Earlier, addressing the Senate Banking Committee a week after the Fed ordered the largest interest rate increase since 1994 in response to a four-decade inflation high of 8.6% in May, Powell said:,"We need to get inflation back down to 2%. We're using our tools to do that.”,The Fed Chair acknowledged that the current data pointed to the risk of an economic slowdown.,"It's certainly a possibility. It's not our intended outcome at all but it's certainly a possibility. We're not trying to provoke — and don't think that we will need to provoke — a recession… But we do think it's absolutely essential that we restore price stability, really for the benefit of the labor market as much as anything else.",After the Fed maintained interest rates near zero for the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic, now it has implemented aggressive monetary tools historically used to lower inflated consumer prices.,The Fed raised interest rates since March, bringing them to a high of 1.75% - the largest since 1994. The central bank has said it will continue with its hikes till current inflation of more than 8% returns to its target of 2% per annum. However, the policy has failed to make a dent in inflation.,Furthermore, coupled with price spikes, the moves sent the benchmark S&P 500 stock index plummeting to its worst performance in the first half of the year since 1970.,President Joe Biden has publicly backed Powell’s efforts. In a sit-down interview with the Associated Press, Biden reiterated that the US was “in a stronger position than any nation in the world to overcome this inflation,” and also said a US recession is “not inevitable.”,However, troubles driven by the coronavirus pandemic recovery, such as soaring inflation as far back as in November 2021, were exacerbated in 2022. Amid growing oil, gas and fuel prices, the economic woes were further worsened by the self-inflicted aftershock of anti-Russia sanctions, implemented over Moscow’s special military operation in Ukraine.,US Consumer Sentiment at New Record Low Amid Runaway Inflation - UMich Poll24 June, 20:23 GMT,Amid this foreboding, Bien’s administration is bracing for recession, despite some Democrats still clinging to optimistic forecasts.,“A recession would be really problematic for the American people. Boy, are we ever a long way from a recession though,” Rep. Jim Himes (D-Conn.) said in an interview.,However, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., warned that the Fed’s increase in borrowing costs could trigger layoffs.,"You know what's worse than high inflation and low unemployment? It's high inflation and a recession with millions of people out of work. I hope you'll reconsider that, before you drive this economy off a cliff," Warren stated.,A White House official was cited as acknowledging that the economy faces a range of global risks, but touted the country’s economic strengths. The strong labor market, consumer spending and business investment all “position us well – better than almost any other country – to build on our strong economic foundation and transition to steady, stable growth, with lower inflation,” the source was cited by Politico as saying.。4月17日，“心‘绥’花开 ‘梨’美更近”绥中县2024年赏花节在范家满族乡百年梨园举行。随着“十二花神”畅游花丛泛起的国风潮，观者如潮，掌声雷动。

B | 加上商贩吆喝声、相机快门闪动声应和，活脱脱一首催人奋进的田园诗。                             　　该乡梨树种植面积2000余亩，尤为有名的是“百年梨园”，共有472棵梨树，树龄多在百年以上，加上多处古色古香的亭台小榭，历史文化底蕴深厚，让人为之神往。尤其是每年的4月中旬前后，春与笑脸相逢，花与古景映衬，更让人激起现代与古朴碰撞后产生的别样情怀。                   　　近年来，绥中县依托大海、长城、古塔等丰富的旅游资源，聚力文旅融合，加快全域旅游整合步伐，使旅游产业不断升腾，影响力逐步提升。同时，凝神聚力，打造乡村生态游成为全域旅游新亮点。以此为契机，让“花为媒、景为台、品优质”成为靓丽的名片，进入大众视野，致力打造美丽宜居乡村，助力乡村旅游业蓬勃发展。                             　　赏花节当天，万余名游客光临。

C | 他们不仅观看到精彩的汉服走秀、戏曲表演、非遗展示等节目，还近距离欣赏到霸王鞭、陈氏太极拳、古筝弹奏。

D | 据组织者介绍，将赏花节与优秀的传统文化完美结合，不仅烘托了浓厚的节日氛围，还让游客“踏春循音”“闻香识曲”成为游玩中的点缀，妙不可言。

E |                    　　当地村民也来凑热闹，他们“翻箱倒柜”拿出家里的山野菜、苹果干、梨干、野生蘑菇、笨鸡蛋等，摆在景区周边售卖，半天的工夫，收获满满。附近的农家饭店、超市内人头攒动。不仅如此，该乡的跳石沟、三女峰、鱼小姐宫、条石水库等景点的游客也是络绎不绝。                   　　“以赏花为点，带动乡村游的面，从而拉动消费，这是我们工作的着力点。”范家满族乡党委书记李心欣说，“如此红火的场景，让人振奋，并增加百倍信心，我们将深挖全乡的潜在资源，亮出全部‘家底’，让广大游客乘兴而来、收获满满，为全县的乡村游‘添红挂彩’，助力乡村经济‘芝麻开花节节高’。”                    图为表演者在梨园内进行汉服走秀。常亮 摄。

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